Australian Cyclone & Tropical Low Probabilities
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Tropical Cyclone System Probabilities – Extended Forecast
El Niño events are often associated with quieter cyclone seasons. Historical data shows that seasons with strong El Niño conditions have resulted in fewer severe cyclones, contrasting with the more active seasons generally linked to La Niña events.
Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Forecast For The Australian Region
Overview of the 2024-25 Season
The 2024-25 Australian tropical cyclone season is expected to be an average season, with the number of tropical cyclones forecast to be close to the long-term average. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) predicts that the season will see an average number of tropical cyclones, with a slight increase in the likelihood of severe tropical cyclones due to warmer-than-average ocean temperatures forecast for the Australian region. These warmer sea surface temperatures can provide the necessary energy for cyclones to intensify, making it crucial for residents to stay informed and prepared.
Factors Influencing Cyclone Formation
Several factors influence tropical cyclone formation in the Australian region. One of the key factors is the sea surface temperature, which needs to be at least 26.5°C for tropical cyclones to form. The warmer-than-average ocean temperatures forecast for the Australian region during the 2024-25 season are expected to increase the likelihood of severe tropical cyclones. Another factor is the atmospheric conditions, including the presence of low-pressure systems and wind shear. The BoM uses statistical modelling to forecast the seasonal risk of tropical cyclones, taking into account conditions in the oceans and atmosphere over the preceding July to September period. These models help predict the potential for cyclone formation and intensity, providing valuable information for planning and preparedness.
Australian Cyclone Season Facts
- On average, four tropical cyclones make landfall in Australia each season.
- Five severe tropical cyclones occur in Australia on average per season.
- The Bureau of Meteorology cautions about the higher likelihood of severe tropical cyclones of Category 3, 4, or 5 due to warm ocean temperatures.
- Warmer sea surface temperatures increase the risk of strong tropical cyclones near Western Australia.
- Sea surface temperatures near Australia’s northwest coast are currently more than 2°C above average.
- The tropical cyclone season in Australia typically runs from 1 November to 30 April.
- Tropical cyclones can form outside the typical cyclone season dates from 1 July to 30 June.
- The Bureau of Meteorology issues long-range tropical cyclone forecasts in the second week of October each year.
- The Australian region’s cyclone monitoring is handled by the Bureau of Meteorology and other national meteorological services.
- The broader Australian region covers areas south of the equator, between 90°E and 160°E.
- Tropical cyclones can develop outside the official season dates from 1 November to 30 April.
- Severe tropical cyclones can cause widespread destruction and significant economic losses.
Charts Are Provided By The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts website provides a range of charts related to weather and climate, offering valuable insights for meteorologists, researchers, and weather enthusiasts.
One of the key features of the website is its collection of tropical cyclone charts. These charts display the evolution and potential activity of tropical cyclones, providing information on their projected paths and intensities. The charts also provide valuable insights into cyclone activity in the southern hemisphere, including the Australian region.
Users can select different time ranges and parameters to view the data, allowing for detailed analysis and forecasting.
The charts are based on the ECMWF extended range ensemble, which includes multiple ensemble members to provide a comprehensive view of possible outcomes.
Additionally, the website offers other weather-related charts and tools, covering various aspects of atmospheric and oceanic conditions.
These charts can be used to study and understand weather patterns, climate trends, and other meteorological phenomena. The website’s user-friendly interface allows users to easily navigate and interact with the charts, making it a valuable resource for anyone interested in weather and climate science.
Overall, the https://charts.ecmwf.int/ website serves as a valuable tool for meteorological research and weather forecasting, providing access to a wealth of data and information for users around the world.
Key statistics and trends for tropical cyclones and tropical lows in the Australian region over the past 50
On average, 10-12 tropical cyclones form in the Australian region each year. The number of cyclones can vary widely from year to year, ranging from as few as 3 to as many as 25.
Tropical cyclone numbers in the Australian region have decreased slightly over the past 50 years. Studies have shown a downward trend in numbers from around 12 cyclones per year in the 1970s to 10 per year in the 2010s.
The frequency of severe tropical cyclones (Category 3 or higher) has not changed significantly over the past 50 years. On average, 3-4 severe cyclones occur per season.
Tropical cyclone intensity shows no clear trends over the past 50 years. Some studies suggest a slight increasing trend in intensity while others show no change. More research is needed in this area.
Tropical cyclone tracks have shifted southward in the past 30 years, with more cyclones closer to the southeast Queensland and northern New South Wales coasts.
The cyclone season lasts from November to April, with a peak in activity in the months from January to March. Nearly 70% of cyclones occur during these peak months.
In addition to cyclones, an average of 15-20 tropical lows form each season in the broader Australian region. Tropical low numbers do not show any clear long-term trends.
These trends are specific to the southern hemisphere, highlighting the importance of monitoring cyclone activity in this region.
So in summary, cyclone numbers have decreased slightly but intensity shows no clear trends over the past 50 years in the Australian region. The southward shift in tracks in recent decades is an important trend to note.