Bureau of Meteorology Long Term Weather Forecast YouTube Video
Based on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) anomaly maps for 2024, we can predict precipitation and temperature trends across Queensland, New South Wales & Australia.
These anomaly maps indicate the deviation of expected precipitation and temperatures from the long-term average. Positive values (in green and blue shades for rainfall and yellow to red for temperature) represent higher-than-average rainfall and temperatures, while negative values (in brown and red shades for rainfall and white to blue/purple for temperatures) signify lower-than-average rainfall and temperatures.
Images are courtesy of https://meteologix.com/au/
The following forecast provides insights into the expected weather patterns for Queensland, focusing on key population centres and rural areas. The analysis includes predictions on rainfall, temperature anomalies, and cyclone activity, helping residents and businesses prepare for the winter season.
Long-Range Temperature Forecast
Based on the temperature anomaly maps for September, October, and November 2024, here’s a long-range temperature forecast for Australia:
September 2024
- Western and Northern Australia: Above-average temperatures are forecast, particularly in central Northern Territory and northwestern Western Australia, where anomalies could reach +1.5°C to +3°C.
- Central Australia: Expected to see near-average temperatures, with minor deviations of +0.5°C to +1°C in some areas.
- Southeast Australia: Cooler conditions are likely, with temperatures ranging from -0.5°C to -1°C below average across parts of New South Wales, Victoria, and southern Queensland. Coastal areas, including Sydney and Brisbane, may experience near-normal conditions.
- Southwestern Australia: Perth and the surrounding regions are expected to experience near-normal temperatures.
October 2024
- Central and Northern Australia: Widespread above-average temperatures, particularly in the Northern Territory and parts of Queensland, with anomalies in the +1°C to +2°C range. This warming trend could extend toward central Australia.
- Southern and Eastern Australia: Much of New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australia may experience slightly warmer-than-average conditions (+0.5°C to +1°C). The Sydney to Melbourne corridor could experience these mild deviations.
- Western Australia: There is a slight warming trend in northern and central regions, but southwestern Australia is forecast to remain closer to average.
November 2024
- Western Australia: The southwestern corner, including Perth, is forecast to see significant warming, with anomalies up to +1.5°C to +2.5°C.
- Northern and Central Australia: Similar to October, above-average temperatures will likely dominate, especially across northern Queensland and the Northern Territory, where deviations from the norm range from +1°C to +2°C.
- Southeastern Australia: Parts of New South Wales, Victoria, and Tasmania may continue to see near-average to slightly below-average temperatures (-0.5°C to -1°C).
- Queensland and Northern NSW: The forecast shows cooler conditions along the coast, including Brisbane, with anomalies slightly below the average.
Summary
For the final quarter of 2024:
- Warming Trends: The central and northern regions of Australia, including parts of Queensland, the Northern Territory, and Western Australia, are expected to experience higher-than-average temperatures throughout.
- Cooler Regions: Southeastern Australia, including parts of New South Wales, Victoria, and Tasmania, may see a mild cooling trend, particularly in September and November.
- Near-Average: Some coastal areas, particularly in the southern regions, will likely see temperatures close to average.
These trends suggest increasing warmth across Australia as spring progresses into summer, particularly for the central and northern parts of the country.
Long Range Rainfall Forecast
Based on the three ECMWF precipitation anomaly maps for September, October, and November 2024, here’s a long-range rainfall forecast for Australia:
September 2024
- Western Australia (WA): Significant rainfall deficiencies are expected across much of WA, especially the southwestern regions around Perth, where anomalies show a reduction of up to 70 mm below the average. This indicates a dry month for Perth and nearby areas.
- Northern Australia: Northern regions such as Darwin and northern Queensland are expected to receive slightly above-average rainfall, especially around the Cape York Peninsula, showing slight increases (up to 5 mm).
- Eastern States: Southern Queensland, New South Wales, and Victoria are likely to experience near-average rainfall with a slight positive anomaly in areas like Melbourne, where anomalies are up to 5 mm above normal.
- Tasmania: Tasmania shows a stronger positive anomaly, suggesting significantly above-average rainfall, particularly in the southern and eastern parts of the island.
October 2024
- Western Australia: The rainfall deficiency continues for WA, but it slightly moderates compared to September. Perth and the southwestern parts will still experience below-average rainfall (around -2 to -5 mm), but less severe than the previous month.
- Northern Australia: Northern Queensland, particularly in regions around Cairns and Townsville, is forecast to experience above-average rainfall (5-10 mm above normal), with the wet season beginning to ramp up.
- Eastern Australia: The eastern states, including Brisbane and Sydney, are likely to see near or slightly above-average rainfall (up to 5 mm), contributing to relatively stable conditions.
- Tasmania: Tasmania continues to see above-average rainfall in the eastern and central parts, maintaining wetter conditions than usual.
November 2024
- Western Australia: The trend of drier-than-average conditions persists in southwestern WA, but the anomalies appear to be neutral to slightly positive for northern parts of WA.
- Northern Australia: Rainfall in northern Australia, including the Top End and northern Queensland, increases significantly. Regions around Cairns show positive anomalies, with up to 20 mm above normal, indicating an active start to the wet season.
- Eastern Australia: Eastern states, including Brisbane and Sydney, maintain near or slightly above-average rainfall (around 5 mm). This trend will help maintain steady water levels and soil moisture.
- South Australia and Victoria: Rainfall around Adelaide and Victoria (including Melbourne) remains positive, with some areas experiencing slightly above-average conditions (up to 10 mm).
- Tasmania: Tasmania continues to show positive rainfall anomalies, particularly in the central and southern regions, which will sustain above-average rainfall for the month.
Summary
- Western Australia: Expect below-average rainfall in the southwest through September and October, with slight improvements by November.
- Northern Australia: A positive trend for northern Queensland and Darwin, especially in November, indicating the onset of a strong wet season.
- Eastern States: Stable rainfall conditions in Queensland, NSW, and Victoria, with no major anomalies. Brisbane and Sydney are expected to see near-normal conditions.
- Tasmania: Above-average rainfall is forecast across all three months, with the wettest conditions likely in September and November.
This forecast highlights regional differences, with some areas facing dry conditions (especially WA) while the northern parts see increasing rainfall as the wet season begins in earnest.
Are We In La Nina or El Nino?
Current atmospheric and oceanic conditions are within ENSO-neutral levels. However, since December 2023, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern Pacific have been decreasing, with a notable amount of cooler-than-average water below the surface.
The ENSO Outlook is now at ‘La Niña Watch,’ indicating some potential for La Niña to develop in the Pacific Ocean later in 2024. However, this watch does not guarantee La Niña’s formation. Climate models predict that SSTs in the central tropical Pacific will likely continue to cool in the coming months. Four out of seven models indicate SSTs will stay within neutral ENSO levels, while the other three models predict SSTs will cool to La Niña levels starting in August.
Read More: ENSO Outlook – An alert system for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation
La Niña and El Niño are phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle that affect Australia’s weather differently:
La Niña: Typically brings above-average rainfall, cooler temperatures in eastern Australia, and an increased likelihood of flooding, tropical cyclones, and an earlier onset of the monsoon season.
El Niño: Often leads to drier conditions, warmer temperatures, and an increased risk of drought, bushfires, and heatwaves in northern and eastern Australia.
What Are the Climate Drivers That Could Affect QLD and NSW Weather Over Spring 2024?
Several climate drivers could shape the weather patterns across Queensland (QLD) and New South Wales (NSW) during spring 2024, with key influences such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) all playing a part.
ENSO and Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs)
Currently, the ENSO is in a neutral phase. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central equatorial Pacific have cooled from the El Niño conditions observed in late 2023 and are now neutral. Some climate models suggest that SSTs could drop below the La Niña threshold (below −0.8°C) by October, while others, including the Bureau’s models, indicate that ENSO is likely to remain neutral throughout the spring. This uncertainty leaves room for the possibility of La Niña developing, which could lead to wetter conditions for QLD and NSW later in the season.
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
The IOD is also in a neutral phase as of September 2024, with a slight positive reading of +0.15°C. Most models predict that the IOD will stay neutral for the remainder of the spring. A neutral IOD generally has little influence on Australia’s climate, meaning that rainfall and temperature patterns are more likely to be shaped by other drivers like ENSO and SAM.
Southern Annular Mode (SAM)
As of early September 2024, the SAM is in a positive phase, which was preceded by a neutral period in the latter half of August. SAM is expected to return to neutral in the coming week. When neutral, SAM does not have a strong impact on rainfall or temperatures in Australia. A positive SAM, however, can lead to drier conditions in the southern regions, though it is unlikely to play a significant role during the upcoming spring if it remains neutral.
Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
Global sea surface temperatures have been exceptionally warm throughout 2023 and 2024, with record-breaking warmth recorded between April 2023 and June 2024. Although July and August 2024 were slightly cooler than their respective record months in 2023, they remain some of the warmest on record. This unusual warmth may affect the predictability of typical climate drivers like ENSO and IOD, making long-range weather forecasts more reliable than relying on historical SST patterns alone.
Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO)
The MJO is currently active in the Maritime Continent region, to the north of Australia, as of early September 2024. This pulse is forecast to either maintain or slightly strengthen in the coming week. When the MJO is active in this region during spring, it can enhance trade winds, which may contribute to La Niña development. This, in turn, could bring increased rainfall to QLD and NSW as the season progresses.
In summary, while both ENSO and the IOD are neutral heading into spring, there remains the potential for La Niña to develop, bringing wetter conditions later in the season. The positive SAM and MJO activity further complicate predictions, but a neutral SAM and active MJO could lead to weather variability.
Given the record-high global SSTs, spring 2024 may see unusual or intensified weather patterns across QLD and NSW.
