Home Weather Forecasts QLD & NSW Long Term Weather Forecast

QLD & NSW Long Term Weather Forecast

3 Month QLD, NSW & AUSTRALIAN Long Range Weather Forecast For Summer 2025

Bureau of Meteorology Long Term Weather Forecast YouTube Video

Summer Weather Forecast

Given the record-high global SSTs (Sea Surface Temperatures), Summer 2025 may see unusual or intensified weather patterns across QLD and NSW as well as WA and other parts of Australia.

Looking ahead, the long-range forecast for summer indicates:

  1. Above average rainfall is likely over most of the season, particularly over coastal and adjacent inland regions where low pressure or cyclonic development impacts occur.
  2. Regions in eastern, western, and northern Australia may face high streamflows and wet soils, increasing the risk of riverine and flash flooding.

Temperature Trends

Summer is projected to be warmer than average across most of Australia. While some areas, including parts of New South Wales and inland Western Australia, may experience more typical daytime temperatures, nights are expected to be warmer than usual nationwide. This trend is particularly pronounced in the north and west, where the likelihood of unusually warm summer nights is high.

Heatwave and Bushfire Risks

The forecast also indicates an increased risk of heatwaves due to warm nights following hot days. The Bureau will issue heatwave forecasts and warnings through to the end of March. Additionally, the bushfire outlook shows heightened risk for regions in Victoria, New South Wales, Western Australia, South Australia, and the Northern Territory. Communities are urged to prepare and review their bushfire and emergency plans.

Global Influences

Warmer than average sea surface temperatures are anticipated across much of the globe, including Australian waters. These warm oceans can enhance atmospheric moisture and energy, potentially increasing the severity of storms and rainfall.

Long Range Weather Forecast For QLD and NSW & Australia - For December, January & February

Based on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) anomaly maps for 2025, we can predict precipitation and temperature trends across Queensland, New South Wales & Australia.

These anomaly maps indicate the deviation of expected precipitation from the long-term average. Positive values (in green and blue shades for rainfall) represent higher-than-average rainfall, while negative values (in brown and red shades for rainfall a) signify lower-than-average rainfall.

Images are courtesy of https://meteologix.com/au/

For Australia

The following outlook images for Summer are a broad indication of outlooks. This means they do not account for extreme anomalies that can occur, such as cyclones, low pressure systems, large scale troughs and weather systems and random heavy rainfall events that can significantly alter these forecasts. Given the above average SSTs (Sea Surface Temperatures) currently affecting Australia, these heavy rain events are more likely then normal this wet season.

Possible Summer 2025 Rainfall Intensities

Long Term Total Accumulated Rainfall Forecast For QLD and NSW & Australia

Long Term Australian Rainfall & temperature Outlooks

ENSO Outlook

Are We In La Nina or El Nino?

We are currently in a weak La Nina.

Climate Drivers

Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO)

The MJO is predicted to arrive in Australia late January to Early February.

The MJO increases rainfall and the chances of tropical lows and cyclones and the occurrence of the North Australian Monsoon

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) represents the primary variation in tropical weather patterns on weekly to monthly timescales. It is described as an eastward-propagating wave or pulse of enhanced cloudiness and rainfall near the equator, typically cycling every 30 to 60 days.

QLD & NSW Long Term Weather Forecast 1

Current Climate Drivers That Could Affect QLD and NSW Weather Over Summer 2025?

Several climate drivers could shape the weather patterns across Queensland (QLD) and New South Wales (NSW) during Summer 2024/25, with key influences such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) all playing a part.

  • Global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are just below the record highs of 2023. In Australia, November 2024 saw the warmest SSTs on record for the month. These elevated ocean temperatures to Australia’s north-west and east are likely affecting rainfall and temperature patterns.

  • The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains in a neutral state.

  • Although not meeting typical La Niña thresholds, some oceanic indices, and cloud and wind patterns in the Pacific have intermittently displayed weak La Niña characteristics in recent months. However, these patterns have not been consistent enough to classify as a La Niña event.

  • Modelling predicts that ENSO will stay neutral through April 2025, aligning with 4 out of 6 international climate models analyzed.

  • The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. It showed negative tendencies from mid-October but returned to neutral values at the beginning of December.

  • Modelling forecasts that the IOD will remain neutral through April 2025, consistent with 5 out of 6 international climate models surveyed and the typical IOD lifecycle.

Given the record-high global SSTs (Sea Surface Temperatures), Summer 2025 may see unusual or intensified weather patterns across QLD and NSW.

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