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QLD & NSW Long Term Weather Forecast

3 Month QLD & NSW Long Range Weather Forecast For Winter 2024

Bureau of Meteorology Long Term Weather Forecast YouTube Video

Long Range Weather Forecast For QLD and NSW - For June July August

Based on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) anomaly maps for 2024, we can predict precipitation and temperature trends across Queensland. 

These anomaly maps indicate the deviation of expected precipitation and temperatures from the long-term average. Positive values (in green and blue shades for rainfall and yellow to red for temperature) represent higher-than-average rainfall and temperatures, while negative values (in brown and red shades for rainfall and white to blue/purple for temperatures) signify lower-than-average rainfall and temperatures.

Images are courtesy of https://meteologix.com/au/

For Queensland

Overview

The following forecast provides insights into the expected weather patterns for Queensland, focusing on key population centres and rural areas. The analysis includes predictions on rainfall, temperature anomalies, and cyclone activity, helping residents and businesses prepare for the winter season.

June 2024

Temperature:

  • Coastal Areas (Cairns, Townsville, Gladstone, Brisbane):
    Expect near-average temperatures, with anomalies around -0.25 to 0.5°C. Slight cooling in water temperatures, particularly near Brisbane.
  • Inland Areas (Toowoomba, western regions):
    Near-average temperatures with minor deviations.

Precipitation:

  • Coastal Areas:
    Above-average rainfall, especially around Cairns and Townsville, with anomalies reaching up to +50mm. Expect wetter conditions extending down the coast to Gladstone and Brisbane.
  • Inland Areas:
    Moderate to high rainfall anomalies, particularly around Toowoomba, indicating a wetter-than-usual month.

Cyclone Activity:

  • No significant cyclone activity expected. The mean sea level pressure anomalies suggest stable conditions.

July 2024

Temperature:

  • Coastal Areas:
    Expect near-average to slightly above-average temperatures. Water temperatures near coastal regions will be slightly above normal, ranging from 0 to 0.5°C anomalies.
  • Inland Areas:
    Slightly warmer than average, particularly in the central and southern parts of Queensland.

Precipitation:

  • Coastal Areas:
    Above-average rainfall is anticipated, particularly around Cairns and Townsville, extending to Gladstone and Brisbane. Rainfall anomalies could be around +30 to +50mm.
  • Inland Areas:
    Western regions might experience below-average rainfall, with anomalies around -15 to -25mm.

Cyclone Activity:

  • Stable conditions with no significant cyclone activity expected. Mean sea level pressure anomalies are minimal, indicating typical winter pressure patterns.

August 2024

Temperature:

  • Coastal Areas:
    Slightly warmer than average, particularly around Townsville and Brisbane, with temperature anomalies up to 0.5°C.
  • Inland Areas:
    Central and western regions may experience slightly above-average temperatures.

Precipitation:

  • Coastal Areas:
    Continuing the trend from July, above-average rainfall is expected. Cairns and Townsville might see significant rainfall anomalies up to +50mm.
  • Inland Areas:
    Slightly below-average rainfall, particularly in the central western regions.

Cyclone Activity:

  • No significant cyclone activity is forecasted. Mean sea level pressure remains stable, indicating typical winter conditions.

Conclusion:
Queensland can expect a generally wetter winter along the coast, with near-average to slightly above-average temperatures. Inland areas will see a mix of near-average to slightly warmer conditions with variable rainfall. The absence of significant cyclone activity will contribute to a relatively stable winter season.

For New South Wales

Long-Range Rainfall, Temperature & Cyclone/Low-Pressure Forecast for New South Wales, Winter 2024 (June – August)

June 2024 Forecast

  1. Water Temperature:

    • Anomalies in water temperature along the coast show slightly above-average temperatures, particularly near Sydney and Newcastle.
    • Coastal waters off Coffs Harbour and Port Macquarie also exhibit warmer temperatures, up to 1.5°C above normal.
  2. Precipitation:

    • Precipitation anomalies indicate slightly above-average rainfall in the northeastern parts, especially around Coffs Harbour and Lismore.
    • Southern and central regions, including Canberra, Sydney, and Wollongong, will see below-average rainfall.
  3. Temperature:

    • Temperature anomalies suggest warmer than average conditions across most of New South Wales.
    • The eastern regions, including Sydney, will experience temperatures up to 1°C above normal.
  4. Sea Level Pressure:

    • Anomalies in mean sea level pressure are slightly above average across the state.
    • Higher pressures suggest more stable weather conditions, potentially reducing the likelihood of significant storms.

July 2024 Forecast

  1. Water Temperature:

    • Coastal waters off Sydney and Newcastle will maintain above-average temperatures, around 1.5°C higher than normal.
    • The trend of warmer coastal waters continues along the entire eastern coastline.
  2. Precipitation:

    • Precipitation anomalies indicate below-average rainfall for central and southern parts of the state, including Sydney and Canberra.
    • Northern coastal areas may see near-average rainfall.
  3. Temperature:

    • Warm temperature anomalies persist across New South Wales, with the entire state experiencing temperatures up to 1°C above normal.
    • The northeastern region will particularly see warmer conditions.
  4. Sea Level Pressure:

    • Sea level pressure anomalies continue to be higher than average, suggesting stable atmospheric conditions.
    • Central and southern regions show slightly higher pressure values than the northern parts.

August 2024 Forecast

  1. Water Temperature:

    • Coastal water temperatures off the eastern coast, particularly near Sydney and Newcastle, remain above average.
    • The anomalies reach up to 2°C above normal, indicating a persistent warming trend.
  2. Precipitation:

    • Precipitation anomalies show mixed conditions with below-average rainfall in central regions but near-average to above-average rainfall in the north.
    • Areas around Lismore and Coffs Harbour may see higher than normal rainfall.
  3. Temperature:

    • Above-average temperature anomalies continue, with temperatures across New South Wales being up to 1°C higher than usual.
    • The warmth is most pronounced in the northeastern parts.
  4. Sea Level Pressure:

    • Mean sea level pressure anomalies remain higher across the state.
    • Elevated pressures suggest continued stability in the weather, with fewer storm systems expected.

Summary for Major Population Centres

  • Sydney: Warmer temperatures and below-average rainfall are expected throughout winter. Coastal waters will be warmer, potentially affecting local weather patterns.
  • Newcastle: Similar to Sydney, with warmer coastal waters and overall higher temperatures.
  • Canberra: Persistent warmer temperatures with below-average rainfall. Stable conditions with higher sea level pressures.
  • Coffs Harbour and Lismore: Expect near-average to slightly above-average rainfall, with higher temperatures and warm coastal waters.
  • Wollongong: Higher than average temperatures with below-average rainfall, influenced by warmer coastal waters.

Summary for Western and Rural Regions

  • Broken Hill, Ivanhoe, and Condobolin: These regions will experience warmer than average temperatures and below-average rainfall. Elevated sea level pressures suggest stable and dry conditions.
  • Mildura and Wilcannia: Persistent warmer temperatures with minimal rainfall deviations from normal. Higher pressures imply stable weather with fewer disruptions.
  • Shepparton and Albury: Warmer temperatures and below-average rainfall with stable atmospheric conditions due to higher pressures.

This forecast highlights a consistent trend of warmer temperatures and stable atmospheric conditions across New South Wales during winter 2024, with varying rainfall patterns.

Long Term Total Accumulated Rainfall Forecast For QLD and NSW

Rainfall – Totals that have a 75% chance of occurring from June to August

Qld & nsw long term weather forecast 1

Long Range Temperature Forecast For QLD and NSW

Chance of above-average temperatures

Qld & nsw long term weather forecast 3

Chance of being unusually warm Qld & nsw long term weather forecast 5 Images are courtesy of Bureau of Meteorology Long-range forecasts and climate drivers

ENSO Outlook

Are We In La Nina or El Nino?

Qld & nsw long term weather forecast 7

Current atmospheric and oceanic conditions are within ENSO-neutral levels. However, since December 2023, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern Pacific have been decreasing, with a notable amount of cooler-than-average water below the surface.

The ENSO Outlook is now at ‘La Niña Watch,’ indicating some potential for La Niña to develop in the Pacific Ocean later in 2024. However, this watch does not guarantee La Niña’s formation. Climate models predict that SSTs in the central tropical Pacific will likely continue to cool in the coming months. Four out of seven models indicate SSTs will stay within neutral ENSO levels, while the other three models predict SSTs will cool to La Niña levels starting in August.

Read More: ENSO Outlook – An alert system for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation
La Niña and El Niño are phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle that affect Australia’s weather differently:

La Niña: Typically brings above-average rainfall, cooler temperatures in eastern Australia, and an increased likelihood of flooding, tropical cyclones, and an earlier onset of the monsoon season.

El Niño: Often leads to drier conditions, warmer temperatures, and an increased risk of drought, bushfires, and heatwaves in northern and eastern Australia.

Climate Drivers

What Are the Climate Drivers That Could Affect QLD and NSW Weather Over Winter 2024?

Several key climate drivers are likely to influence the weather in Queensland (QLD) and New South Wales (NSW) during the winter of 2024:

  1. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): The potential development of a La Niña event is being monitored, with a 50% chance of occurrence. La Niña typically brings above-average rainfall to eastern and northern Australia, which could result in wetter-than-normal conditions for QLD and NSW.

  2. Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): The IOD is currently neutral but can significantly impact rainfall patterns. A positive IOD can lead to below-average rainfall, while a negative IOD can enhance rainfall across Australia.

  3. Southern Annular Mode (SAM): Expected to remain neutral, SAM influences the position of the westerly winds and can affect rainfall and temperature patterns.

  4. Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO): This tropical atmospheric wave affects short-term weather patterns and can influence rainfall and cloud cover in the region.

  5. Global Warming: Ongoing climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, including more severe El Niño and La Niña phenomena, potentially leading to more pronounced weather patterns in QLD and NSW.

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