Spring 2026 Australia Weather Forecast
Spring 2026 leans hot and dry across much of southern and eastern Australia, with the Bureau of Meteorology’s outlook pointing to lower rainfall odds and warmer conditions in many areas.
El Niño is firmly established and likely to stay strong.
South and east lean drier than average overall.
Western Australia leans wetter than average in many areas.
Warm days are favoured across much of Australia.
Seasonal signals are strong, but local rain still varies.
Rainfall outlook
For September to November 2026, the Bureau of Meteorology rainfall outlook shows the chance of exceeding the median rainfall leaning below average across much of southern and eastern Australia, while the western half of the country leans wetter than average. This is a chance-of-exceeding-median outlook, not a forecast rainfall total, so some wet periods are still possible even in drier-leaning areas.
Temperature outlook
The temperature outlook strongly favours warmer-than-average conditions for much of Australia through spring 2026. That usually means a higher chance of warm days and, in some places, warmer nights too, especially where dry soils and limited cloud build up.
Official BOM video briefing
Climate and water long-range forecast, issued 27 August 2026 · published 27 August 2026
Source: Bureau of Meteorology. Watch on bom.gov.au
Official BOM outlook maps
Click any map to enlarge. Use the arrow keys or thumbnails to browse all 11 maps.
Chance of exceeding the median rainfall — September to November 2026
This map shows where the odds favour wetter- or drier-than-usual conditions. Green areas have a higher chance of beating the long-term middle (median) rainfall; brown areas tilt drier.
Chance of unusually high rainfall — September to November 2026
This map shows the rainfall totals with a 75% chance of being reached or exceeded, so it highlights where a genuinely wet season is on the cards.
Rainfall (mm) likely to be reached or exceeded with 75% probability — 3-month total
Match the colour on the map above to the colour bar to read the rainfall total. Colours follow the Bureau of Meteorology's official scale.
Chance of exceeding the median rainfall — October to December 2026
The same chance-of-exceeding-the-median rainfall outlook, one period further ahead. Green areas tilt wetter, brown areas tilt drier.
Chance of unusually high rainfall — October to December 2026
Rainfall totals with a 75% chance of being reached or exceeded for the later period — strong odds these amounts turn up.
Rainfall (mm) likely to be reached or exceeded with 75% probability — 3-month total
Match the colour on the map above to the colour bar to read the rainfall total. Colours follow the Bureau of Meteorology's official scale.
Daytime temperatures — September to November 2026
Where daytime highs are more likely to run warmer or cooler than the long-term middle value.
Overnight temperatures — September to November 2026
Where nights are more likely to be warmer or cooler than usual. Warm nights can extend heat stress well after sunset.
Daytime temperatures — October to December 2026
Daytime temperature outlook for the later period — where highs are more likely to run warmer or cooler than usual.
Overnight temperatures — October to December 2026
Overnight temperature outlook for the later period — where nights are more likely to be warmer or cooler than usual.
Climate driver status
The Indian Ocean Dipole, which measures sea temperature patterns in the Indian Ocean, is not signalling a strong extra push either way in this outlook.
The Madden-Julian Oscillation, a pulse of tropical cloud and rain that moves around the globe, is too short-term to anchor a 3-month outlook and is treated as inactive here.
The Southern Annular Mode, which tracks the north-south shift of the westerly wind belt, is not providing a clear seasonal signal at this lead time.
El Niño, which is the warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific, currently signals a drier and hotter spring for much of southern and eastern Australia.
State-by-state breakdown
Frequently asked questions
Explore more forecasts & guides
Where tropical systems are most likely this season.
Live tracking of systems in the Australian region.
How ENSO, IOD, SAM and MJO shape our weather.
El Niño vs La Niña and what each means for Australia.
Next 14 days of rain and storm activity.
Current BOM warnings across every state.
Sources & data attribution
The Bureau's long-range forecast video provides a look at likely rainfall, streamflow, and temperature for the months ahead.
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- [Skip to main content](https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/?ninoIndex=nino3.4&index=rnino34&period=weekly#content) - [BoM](https://www.bom.gov.au/) - [Climate](https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/) - [Forecasts & monitoring](https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/) - Southern hemisphere monitoring [For long-range forecasts of rainfall and temperature for Australia, please see our long-range forecast page. It provides the best guidance on likely conditions in the coming months, using the Bureau's climate model to take into account all influences from the oceans and atmosphere.\\ \\  ## Loading ### Please wait... ### Information for screen reader users This long-range forecast page includes text summaries, a video, and interactive maps. The summaries identify key map characteristics and current state of climate indicators. Alternative text versions with static maps, are also available from the following links: - [Latest text long-range forecast](https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/) - [Archive of long-range forecasts](https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ah
As of **29 Aug 2026**, both NOAA CPC and the Bureau of Meteorology indicate **El Niño** is established and strengthening, with **El Niño the overwhelmingly likely outcome over the next 3 months** rather than La Niña or Neutral.[2][16][18] - **NOAA CPC status:** The **ENSO Alert System Status is El Niño Advisory** in the **13 Aug 2026** ENSO Diagnostic Discussion.[2] - **NOAA CPC outlook (next 3 months):** NOAA’s August outlook says El Niño will **continue to strengthen through the end of the yea
## Attention! Your web browser seems to need updating. [Some free modern browsers](http://browsehappy.com/) ## Loading ### Please wait... ### Information for screen reader users This long-range forecast page includes text summaries, a video, and interactive maps. The summaries identify key map characteristics and current state of climate indicators. Alternative text versions with static maps, are also available from the following links: - [Latest text long-range forecast](https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/) - [Archive of long-range forecasts](https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ah
As of **29 Aug 2026**, both NOAA CPC and the Bureau of Meteorology indicate **El Niño** is established and strengthening, with **El Niño the overwhelmingly likely outcome over the next 3 months** rather than La Niña or Neutral.[2][16][18] - **NOAA CPC status:** The **ENSO Alert System Status is El Niño Advisory** in the **13 Aug 2026** ENSO Diagnostic Discussion.[2] - **NOAA CPC outlook (next 3 months):** NOAA’s August outlook says El Niño will **continue to strengthen through the end of the yea
As of **29 Aug 2026**, both NOAA CPC and the Bureau of Meteorology indicate **El Niño** is established and strengthening, with **El Niño the overwhelmingly likely outcome over the next 3 months** rather than La Niña or Neutral.[2][16][18] - **NOAA CPC status:** The **ENSO Alert System Status is El Niño Advisory** in the **13 Aug 2026** ENSO Diagnostic Discussion.[2] - **NOAA CPC outlook (next 3 months):** NOAA’s August outlook says El Niño will **continue to strengthen through the end of the yea
As of **29 Aug 2026**, both NOAA CPC and the Bureau of Meteorology indicate **El Niño** is established and strengthening, with **El Niño the overwhelmingly likely outcome over the next 3 months** rather than La Niña or Neutral.[2][16][18] - **NOAA CPC status:** The **ENSO Alert System Status is El Niño Advisory** in the **13 Aug 2026** ENSO Diagnostic Discussion.[2] - **NOAA CPC outlook (next 3 months):** NOAA’s August outlook says El Niño will **continue to strengthen through the end of the yea
As of **29 Aug 2026**, both NOAA CPC and the Bureau of Meteorology indicate **El Niño** is established and strengthening, with **El Niño the overwhelmingly likely outcome over the next 3 months** rather than La Niña or Neutral.[2][16][18] - **NOAA CPC status:** The **ENSO Alert System Status is El Niño Advisory** in the **13 Aug 2026** ENSO Diagnostic Discussion.[2] - **NOAA CPC outlook (next 3 months):** NOAA’s August outlook says El Niño will **continue to strengthen through the end of the yea
BOM imagery reproduced under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0). Forecast synthesis by Tim's Weather using BOM, ECMWF and public climate datasets. This page is informational and not an official warning.