Greater Melbourne Thunderstorm Forecast Map
See the thunderstorm forecast for Greater Melbourne on an interactive probability map you can zoom into and tap for a local reading.
Melbourne sees fast-moving storms with cold fronts and summer troughs, including thunderstorm asthma risk in late spring.
This thunderstorm forecast map shows where storms may develop across Greater Melbourne during the stated valid period. Darker colours mean a higher storm chance, not greater severity. Tap any point for its probability, or switch to the national Australia map to see the bigger picture.
Forecast image sourced fromMeteologix
Plan for the rain
Rainfall forecast maps for Greater Melbourne
Thunderstorm maps for other areas
How the Greater Melbourne thunderstorm forecast works
This is the one national multi-model thunderstorm forecast, framed on Greater Melbourne. It counts how many forecast models expect storm conditions at each location during the valid period, so darker shading means stronger model agreement. A new run is usually published daily. It shows a broad regional chance rather than the exact time, path or strength of any single storm, and timing can run a few hours early or late.
Read more about the method and its limits on the national thunderstorm probability map.
How to use this forecast safely
These maps are forecast guidance, not warnings. Storm chances change with every model run, and a small area can still be hit hard where the chance looks low. Official severe thunderstorm and severe weather warnings from the Bureau of Meteorology always take priority for Greater Melbourne.
This is not live radar or a live storm tracker. Use the forecast map to plan for the stated period, then check current radar, lightning and warnings as storms develop.
For live storm activity, use the lightning tracker and the rainfall radar. For the days ahead, see the rainfall and thunderstorm forecast.
Greater Melbourne in focus
The national forecast framed on Greater Melbourne, using exactly the same colour scale as every other view so you can compare areas fairly.
Clear issue and valid times
Every map states when the forecast was produced and the period it covers, in Australian eastern time, so you always know how fresh it is.
Guidance, not a warning
Use this to plan travel, outdoor work and events. Bureau of Meteorology severe thunderstorm warnings always come first.
Frequently Asked Questions
Related Resources
Data Source
Data provided by Tim's Severe Weather
Update Frequency: Daily