Tasmania Thunderstorm Forecast Map
See the thunderstorm forecast for Tasmania on an interactive probability map you can zoom into and tap for a local reading.
Thunderstorms are less frequent in Tasmania than on the mainland, but warm, humid north westerlies ahead of a front can still set off lightning over the highlands and east coast.
This thunderstorm forecast map shows where storms may develop across Tasmaniaduring the stated valid period. Darker colours mean a higher storm chance, not greater severity. Tap any point for its probability, or switch to the national Australia map to see the bigger picture.
How the Tasmania thunderstorm forecast works
This is the one national multi-model thunderstorm forecast, framed on Tasmania. It counts how many forecast models expect storm conditions at each location during the valid period, so darker shading means stronger model agreement. A new run is usually published daily. It shows a broad regional chance rather than the exact time, path or strength of any single storm, and timing can run a few hours early or late.
Read more about the method and its limits on the national thunderstorm probability map.
How to use this forecast safely
These maps are forecast guidance, not warnings. Storm chances change with every model run, and a small area can still be hit hard where the chance looks low. Official severe thunderstorm and severe weather warnings from the Bureau of Meteorology always take priority for Tasmania.
This is not live radar or a live storm tracker. Use the forecast map to plan for the stated period, then check current radar, lightning and warnings as storms develop.
For live storm activity, use the lightning tracker and the rainfall radar. For the days ahead, see the rainfall and thunderstorm forecast.
Tasmania in focus
The national forecast framed on Tasmania, using exactly the same colour scale as every other view so you can compare areas fairly.
Clear issue and valid times
Every map states when the forecast was produced and the period it covers, in Australian eastern time, so you always know how fresh it is.
Guidance, not a warning
Use this to plan travel, outdoor work and events. Bureau of Meteorology severe thunderstorm warnings always come first.
Frequently Asked Questions
Related Resources
Data Source
Data provided by Tim's Severe Weather
Update Frequency: Daily